EVALUATION OF SUNSTREAK REPORTING ON U.S. HOSTAGES

CIA-STARGATE

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This memorandum, dated February 10, 1989, evaluates the use of SUNSTREAK reporting on U.S. hostages. While a complete evaluation can only be conducted once more hostages are released, preliminary findings indicate that SUNSTREAK reporting is a valuable source of positive, hostage-related information. It stimulates analytic deliberation, guides collection efforts, and prompts reevaluation of theories and methodologies. SUNSTREAK reporting has demonstrated logical consistency in identifying hostage locations despite the complex dynamics of the Lebanese conflict. Additionally, there have been instances of corroborating other intelligence collection disciplines and the overall health dynamic presented by SUNSTREAK aligns with assessments made by the Intelligence Community. The report suggests that SUNSTREAK reporting shows promise in locating hostages but has less potential for predicting future events. Reports focusing on a single hostage have been more accurate, and despite periodic reports of hostages' deaths, SUNSTREAK reports have consistently assessed them to be alive.

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Body:  memorandum
 SECRET
 Approved For Release ~~F3 11       F ~  9T8   ~     1    -90VERNMENT
 DATE:           1 0 FEB 1989
 REPLY TO
 6uBJECT: Evaluation of SUNSTREAK Reporting on U.S. Hostages (S)
 To: DT
 1.   (S/NF/SS-3)  SUMMARY:   While a  complete  and  accurate evaluation of
 the use of SUNSTREAK reporting on U.S. hostages cannot be conducted until
 additional    hostage  releases  occur, 'preliminary findings  indicate  that
 the  SUNSTREAK program    does,  indeed,  represent  an  additional  source of
 positive, hostage-related information.  At a minimum, SUNSTREAK reporting
 stimulates analytic deliberation, may help focus         and  guide collection
 efforts,  and  forces  reevaluation   of extant theories  and methodologies.
 Moreover,  experience  with    SUNSTREAK  hostage-related  reporting   over the
 past year revealed several     instances of startling corroboration of other
 intelligence collection disciplines (on both locational and health issues)
 and an impressive logical consistency amidst the complex factional morass
 that is Lebanon.   In short, SUNSTREAK reporting, even in the absence of
 corroborating evidence that could be provided by a released hostage,    is
 assessed to be as reliable and accurate on locational issues as many other
 sources  of  hostage-related  information  emanating  from  Lebanon.   The
 SUNSTREAK     program  represents  yet  another source of information  and
 stimulation for the intelligence analyst.
 2.   (S/NF SS-3) LOCATIONAL DATA:  On the issue of locational information,
 SUNSTREAK reporting has  been remarkably logical despite the complex and
 dynamic nature of Lebanese  territorial     and  factional  strife. The odds
 pinpointing a hostage location that would be completely illogical in the
 Lebanese context are great.  For example a location that fell in an area
 controlled by the Syrians. Amal. Druze. Lebanese Forces. or Israelis would
 SG1C
 3.   (S/NF/SS-3) On at least one occasion, SUNSTREAK reporting on Higgins'
 SG1C
 WARNING NOTICE: This information restricted
 to those with verified access to SUNSTREAK
 L?vel 3 (SS-3).
 OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10
 (REV. 1-80)
 GSA FPMR (41 CFR) 101-11.0
 0010-114
 Approved For ReleasdaRBO /A8C6LSM $6Rib789ROOQAQV? q%j 05 _ 461-275 (364)
 NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
 CLASSIFIED BY DT
 DECLASSIFY ON OADR
 SECRET
 SECRET
 Approved For Release         ACL(MPiJWiWff 89R000401010001-5
 SG1 B
 4.   (S/NF/SS-3)  HEALTH  INFORMATION:   While  no  accurate  assessment  can
 be   made  at  this  time  on SUNSTREAK  reports  dealing  with        health
 dynamics--swings in  physical  and mental  well-being--the overall    picture
 presented by SUNSTREAK is consistent with judgments made by the Intelligence
 Community.   Moreover,  the health dynamic portrayed b SUNSTREAK           SG1 B
 emphatica li,v assessed all the hostages to be alive.  DIA agrees with the
 assessment, and recent reporting strongly indicates the same.
 5.  (S/NF/SS-3) COMMENT: Our initial assessment is that SUNSTREAK reporting
 shows great promise on the  issues of hostage locations, but, much less
 potential for predicting future or sequential events. Furthermore, reports
 generated as a result of focusing on a single hostage (rather than the
 hostage issue as a whole) appear to have a higher degree of accuracy.
 Despite periodic news and  intelligence reports that
 certain  hostages  had  died,  SUNSTREAK  reports  have  consistently  and
 SG1J
 2
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 SPECIAL ACCESS REQUIRED
 Approved For F   ar&L    gi ' 8roC I     4 ~(~   0401010001-5