DATA FROM PSYCHIC SOURCES.

CIA-STARGATE

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Body:  DATA FROM PSYCHIC SOURCES  (S)
 1.  (S) DIA continues to receive information from psychic sources
 regarding BG Dozier.   Some of these reports are from people who
 have    demonstrated   statistical   significance   in   controlled
 parapsychological laboratory experiments; other reports are from
 people  previously  unknown  to  the  parapsychological  research
 community.    It  is difficult to interpret such data,   even from
 tested psychics,  since laboratory investigations usually do not
 simulate an operational problem such as locating missing people.
 It  is  even more difficult  to  assess  data  from  an unsolicited
 unevaluated source where no laboratory data or operational track
 record exists.
 2.  (S) Nevertheless, the potential of such data, especially when
 information from conventional sources is not available, should be
 considered for possible leads or clues.  This judgement is based on
 review of laboratory results with specific individuals who have
 demonstrated consistent statistical significance, and on reports of
 psychic data providing meaningful clues in police work.   Some of
 these  accounts  appear  to  be  credible and  are  reasonably  well
 documented.   Consequently, such data cannot be dismissed out-of-
 hand.   In the case of a search problem,  such data may have the
 potential  of  narrowing   down  search possibilities  and  possibly
 providing additional ideas for the investigation.
 3.   (S)  while  an  initial   assessment  of  the  reliability   or
 credibility of the person providing the data may be possible, based
 on previous laboratory testing and/or operational track record,
 there still remains the major problem of assessing or interpreting
 the  raw  data.    Laboratory  experiments  in  free-response   type
 experiments using pictorial targets    (e.g.,  describing concealed
 drawings,   unknown  geographic  locations,)   indicate  that    the
 descriptive elements,  such as   shape     or  form,  are generally of
 higher reliability than judgments or analysis (labels) given by the
 psychic to what    is being perceived.    For  example, an aircraft
 fuselage may be identified as a "submarine", or a natural cave as
 an "underground facility" of some sort.    It also seems that scale
 judgements    (distances,   height of mountains,)   are   of   low
 reliability.  The data often contain gaps and not all the elements
 of the intended target are perceived.     For example, only one or two
 buildings may be described in a 3-building complex,  or only one
 tower may be perceived when several are in the area.   There are
 also erroneous additions,   possibly from memory associations to a
 similar place or from a tendency to fill-in via imagination.   For
 example, an airport might be added to a train station target, since
 rail lines may suggest "long runways" or "parking aprons".
 4.  (S) Another major source of error in this type of data is with
 verbal responses.   Laboratory results to date suggest very low
 reliability  in  direct  correlation  between  concealed  words and
 psychic impressions of them.  In some cases, possibly depending on
 the individuals background,   training,  and personal preferences,
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 some target words are more likely to be perceived then others.  In
 most cases  (with proven psychics)  there may only be a partial
 correspondence between target words and impressions.  for example,
 the first few letter may correlate, or the perceived word may be a
 "sound alike".   Sometimes the similarity is only symbolic or very
 indirect.   This seems to be even more of a problem if the target
 words are in a language foreign to the psychic.
 5.   (S)  Therefore,  a  degree  of  finesse  must  be  exercised  in
 attempting to apply data from a psychic source.     Some aspects may
 be literal and direct,    other may be incomplete,    mislabeled,  or
 totally incorrect.    Only repeated work with a proven psychic source
 can help evaluate the  individuals various biases             and types of
 error,  and to identify the individuals strengths and weaknesses.
 Usually,  the psychic person  is  likely  to make most     errors  in
 analytical judgements regarding his or her own perceptions; whereas
 people accustomed to work in pattern recognition type tasks appear
 to be better suited to interpret such data.
 6.  (S)  In  order  to  help  assess  reliability  of     psychic data,
 specific feedback is required on initial data inputs.  Therefore it
 is important to know what aspects of a perception were reasonably
 correct, only partially correct, or totally incorrect.  With this
 information, efforts of the source might be re-directed along more
 fruitful  lines  of     query,   and  the  data  accumulated  can  be
 reevaluated, perhaps with additional (and possibly more reliable)
 interpretations.   The importance of specific feedback on initial
 inputs cannot be overemphasized.      In addition, details such as the
 thoroughness of the search and the actual area covered are also
 important.   It may be the correct area was actually searched,
 perhaps not at the right time  (person moved)  or not thoroughly
 enough.   It may be the search concentrated in one specific area,
 and was not expanded to cover other likely possibilities in the
 same general vicinity.
 7.  (S) In addition, data from several independent psychic sources
 may  prove   to have  common  elements  that  form  into  an  overall
 pattern.     Should   this  be  observed,,  new  interpretations   of
 previously obtained data, regardless of thoroughness of feedback,
 may  become  possible.    This   "data  integration"  approach  would
 examine new possibilities that fit the majority of the data and
 maybe   help   narrow   down   or   identify  new   search   options.
 Additionally,  data analysts might be able to list options in a
 most-to-least likely order.     This approach is believed to be a
 fruitful  one  for  search  cases where  the  target area    has much
 terrain redundancy,  is large,  and where the target may be moved
 frequently.
 8.  (S)  Therefore, an integrated assessment step should be taken
 with the possibility that higher confidence can be given to the
 various search possibilities.   This would not exclude previously
 identified areas, if they were not searched thoroughly enough, or
 if  a move  into this  area may have  subsequently  occurred.    In
 addition to these assessments, specific new raw data could also be
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 supplied for information to field users, since some aspects of the
 data might be of more significance to people on the scene than
 analyst far-removed.
 9.  (S)  Consequently,  it is anticipated that,  such an integrated
 approach in use and interpretations of data from psychic sources
 might    provide  more  reliable inputs  for  field  use.    Specific
 feedback and some search details would continue to be required,
 however, for continuing evaluation.  An interactive process between
 psychic  sources,  data  analysts,  and  field users would   lead  to
 better utility of such data, especially in the event no direct data
 regarding location of the subject of search becomes available.
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