INITIAL ASSIGNMENTS

CIA-STARGATE

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This memorandum is addressed to the members of the GRILL FLAME Scientific Evaluation Committee and outlines their initial assignments related to the evaluation task. The assignments include discussions on general evaluation criteria for parapsychological research experiments, the applicability of the Remote Viewing (RV) protocol and experimental procedures suggested by AMSAA, the program planned by MICOM and SRI to observe the effects of a human subject on a random stream of electronic pulses, an assessment of the limitations and scientific merits of expected results under different assumptions, and an evaluation of RV experiments conducted by SRI over the past 6-7 years. The memorandum also requests the submission of draft material by mid-August and mentions that an interim report will be made regarding recommended changes to AMSAA's work. The document ends with an enclosure of an updated list of committee members.

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 MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF GRILL FLAME, SCIENTIFIC
 EVALUATION COMMITTEE
 SUBJECT:  Initial Assignments
 1, In accordance with our meeting at the Pentagon on 27 July, this memo
 confirms the assignments for draft write-ups of specific topics related to
 our evaluation task,
 a.  Dr, Tang - Discuss the general evaluation criteria for para-
 psychological research experiments, especially with respect to the
 contribution and limitation of statistical significance testing in phenomena-
 logical verification applications.  (It would be desirable to attempt to relate
 this by example or otherwise to RV and PK evaluations.)
 b.  Dr. Cartwright and General Stahl - Discuss the applicability of
 the RV protocol and experimental procedures suggested by AMSAA to
 meet their stated objectives ("To develop and apply a methodology for
 quantitatively establishing the existence or non-existence of some form of
 psychic phenomena". ). Indicate also the approaches which have been taken
 by AMSAA to improve on the SRI procedures and discuss further modifica-
 tions which are required (especially in the selection of targets and assign-
 ment of judging procedures) in order to decrease or eliminate the uncertain-
 ties inherent in the proposed "matching" criteria.
 c.  Dr. Holloway and Dr. Montgomery - Discuss the program planned
 by MICOM and SRI to attempt the experimental observation of possible effects
 by a human subject on a random stream of electronic pulses.  Include an
 assessment of:  (a) the need and timing for replicating the SRI experiments
 at MICOM; (b) the instrumentation which is proposed; (c) the experimental
 procedures as currently planned; (d) the instrumentation calibration
 procedures; (e) the random source selections, etc.  Recommend any
 modifications to the planned (SRI/MICOM) process and protocol which would
 further assure the credibility of the results within the context and limitations
 of a computer-based, "hands-off", experiment producing a random bit
 stream of pulses.  IF following the above discussion it is concluded that the
 very concept of the planned experiment has an insufficient scientific basis or
 an unlikely practical significance, you are invited to recommend any appropriate
 departu    and changes to the proposed     eriments.
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 d.  Dr.lansky - Discuss the lik-ry' limitations, signif`e'nce and
 scientific merits for the results which are expected to be of ,ined under
 the following assumptions:  (a) AMSAA's RV experiments are conducted
 as currently planned; (b) AMSAA's RV experiments are modified in accordance
 with recommendations in para b above; (c) MICOM/SRI PK experiments are
 conducted as currently planned; (d) MICOM/SRI PK experiments are modified
 in accordance with recommendations in para c above (retaining the current
 random bit stream concept); (e) (optional) a new basis for assessing PK
 effects is derived which is a major conceptual departure from current
 experimental plans.  (I recommend that you coordinate with Dr. Montgomery
 and Dr. Holloway, if you want to anticipate possible approaches to more
 rigorous scientific procedures. )
 e.  Dr. Snyder - Discuss the RV experiments conducted by SRI'during
 the past 6-7 years involving mostly coordinate cuing and "beacon" tracking
 targeting methods.   Of particular interest is the inclusion of an evaluation
 of:  (a) the contribution of this work to establishing the existence of the RV
 phenomena; (b) shortcomings in the protocol which tend to diminish
 credibility; (c) future benefits to be obtained by replicating the SRI
 procedures at SRI or elsewhere; (d) SRI's application and interpretation
 of statistical procedures in general, and particularly as they are being
 applied to the "search-type" problems utilizing sequential analysis.
 2.  I have appreciated very much your cooperation on our recent trip, and
 I am looking forward to receiving your draft material (typed or not) by mid-
 August.  As we concluded in our final session, I will make an interim report
 of our work as it pertains to recommended changes in the AMSAA work, so
 that the benefits of the Committee's review can be implemented in a timely
 fashion. However, before I issue a memo placing a "hold" on AMSAA's
 experimental planning, I will attempt to coordinate with you by telephone.
 If I can be of any help to you between now and the meeting on 18-20 September,
 please get in touch with me.
 Enclo sure
 Updated List of
 Committee Members
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