A SURVEY OF EXPERT OPINION ON POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE USES OF PSI, US GOVT INTEREST IN PSI, AND LEVEL OF RESEARCH FUNDING IN FIELD

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 Association, St. Lour
 A Survey of Expert  Opinion on Potentially Negative
 Uses of Psi, U.S. Government Interest in Psi, and
 the Level of Research Funding of the Field
 Charles T. Tart
 University. of California at Davis
 Considerable concern has been expressed by some parapsychologists
 lately about the possible militarv uses of psi ability.  This concern is
 partially based on assessments that the U.S.S.R. is not only conducting
 secret research on the development of military applications of psi, but
 that this military r(   arch is funded at hi.,1h support levels such that
 significant progress on understanding and using psi is more likely in the
 U.S.S.R. than in the U.S.A.  These kinds of concerns have been expressed
 in the recently declassified Defense Intelligence Agency document DST-
 181OS-387-75, "Soviet and Czechoslovakian Parapsychology Research."
 Adequate assessment of this situation is difficult for several reasons.
 First, any estimate of what is happening with secret military research in
 the U.S.S.R. must involve considerable inference and conjecture.  Second,
 there has been no collection of expert opinion in the U.S.A. as to whether
 psi can potentially be used for military purposes.  Third, there has been
 little;if any factual data on the actual level of support of parapsychologi-
 cal research in the U.S.A.
 This paper will report a survey of (1) expert opinion on the potential
 military uses of psi; (2) the degree to which the U.S. government has offi-
 cially made inquiries about the field among experts in parapsychology; and
 (3) the level of funding of parapsychological research over the past five
 years.  Hopefully this will provide some data relevant to these important
 questions.
 Sampling Procedure:
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 -2-
 Except for possible classified research on psi, it is relatively
 straightforward to identify the handful of individuals and research labora-
 tories that have produced the bulk of experimental data on parapsychology
 in the last five years.- Based on the membership list of the Parapsychological
 Association (PA), my.knowledge of the literature, and my personal acquain-
 tance with most of the workers
 in this field, in March of 1978 I sent ques-
 tionnaires to individuals (the director or an outstanding individual scien-
 tist) at.  4ideIt fiable parapsychologioal research laboratories in this
 country. My criteria for selection was that each individual had to be a
 fu]1  member  of the PA who had been
 actively working and
 publishing in the
 field for the last five years.  Each had to have at least one occasional
 colleague to qualify to represent a laboratory or center.  In order to pro-
 tect the confidentiality of my respondents, I shall not specify my selection
 criteria in any more detail, but I believe that an almost identical selection
 would be made by every knowledgeable parapsychologist.           Thirteen of the four-
 teen questionnaires were completed and returned to me.
 The questionnaire asked each respondent for his or her opinion on three
 potential military applications of psi, about official government visits to
 their laboratory, and about
 over the past five years.
 Results:
 Question 1:
 tially be used in
 the average funding level of their laboratory
 "How strongly do you believe that psi abilities might  oten-
 the future in a
 military intelligence activities?
 practically useful way for espionage and
 Assume that very large amounts of money
 and scientific manpower would be used to study and develop these activities
 in making your estimate."
 The response categories allowed for this and the following two questions
 were "Impossible," "Unlikely," "Possible," "Likely," and "Certain."  No
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 Approved For Release, 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020QO004-7
 Tart                    'R'te            -3-
 respondent considered espionage use of psi impossible or unlikely.  Four
 considered it possible, five likely, and the remaining four considered it
 certain.
 Question 2:  "How strongly do you believe that psi abilities might poten-
 tially be used in the future in a practically useful way by the military to
 physically harm, sicken, or kill individuals?  Again assume enormous re-
 sources devoted to such development."
 considered
 No respondent 4s          this impossible, two thought it unlikely, seven
 possible, three likely, and one certain.
 Question 3:  "How strongly do you believe that psi abilities might poten-
 tially be used in the future in a practically useful way by the military to
 physically interfere with the operation of physical equipment, such as com-
 puters, observation instruments, etc."  Again assume enormous resources
 devoted to such development."
 The distribution of answers to this question was almost identical to
 those of the second question.  No respondent thought this impossible, one
 thought it unlikely, seven possible, four likely, and one certain.
 There is a fairly general consensus of these experts, then, that several
 military applications of psi are possible or even likely if enough development
 research were carried out.
 Question 4:  "Have you or one of your laboratory staff been approached
 by agents or officials of the U.S. government, acting in an official capacity,
 in the last five years, in order to gather information on parapsychology for
 any government agency?"
 The alternatives here were "Never," "Once," "Several Times," and "Fre-
 quently."  The bulk (8) of the respondents had never been approached, one
 had been once, and four had been approached several times.  None answered
 that they had been approached frequently.  Thus the U.S. government has
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 Approved For Release 20000/08/10: CIA-RDP96-00787R00020Q P004-7
 Tart
 -4-
 gathered at least some information about the field from knowledgeable sources.
 Funding Level:  Because the question of funding in a chronically under-
 funded field can be emotionally sensitive, the questionnaires were returned
 to me in a manner that did not allow me to identify individual respondents.
 I asked the respondents to estimate their laboratory's average
 _
 (                                                                       yearly budget
 over the  a          ears) that had been available   r r  ese  archon psi.
 Teaching or service activities were not to be included in this stimate, nor
 was any dollar value to be put on volunteer help.  Researchers who had a
 full-time salary but who could use only part of their time on psi research
 were to prorate their salary accordingly.  I would guess that the funds
 available to these 13 respondents probably represent at  east 80-90% of
 _a1
 the funds available for scientific parapsychological research.
 Thus the figures
 below should be close estimates of actual dollars that have been available
 for research.
 The to~unds available per P   year for the entire group of respondents
 -     -?--.+.auual
 yearly laboratory budgets ranged from no funds at all to $150 000.  While
 the mean level of yearly funding was $42,5`, the median level was
 ___~                                                                                                     $17,000.
 - That is, half the active research laboratories in the                      ~
 U.S.A. had yearly
 research budgets of less than $17,000.
 As a comparison, a generally accepted figure for yearly suPPort
 of a
 single research scientist in industrial settings is $75,000.  By this standard,
 the total yearly budget for scientific parapsychological research in the U.
 S.A. is sufficient to adequately support seven and three-tenths scientists.
 It is of some interest to look at the relationships between
 -- b.,.c