PROJECT 91002 SUMMARY REPORT

CIA-STARGATE

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This document, dated January 14, 1991, is a summary of key events and incidents related to the Iraqi situation in the near term period of January 7-31, 1991. It is part of Project 91002, which was initiated on January 7, 1991.

The document includes information from two sources: Source 025 and Source 049. Source 025, dated January 7, 1991, predicts that peace talks will fail and resume in the Middle East in March. It also states that war will break out in February and last 2-3 months, with US casualties of 700-2000, mostly in Kuwait. The prediction is that Saddam Hussein will eventually withdraw from Kuwait and the war will be fast and furious. By April, Iraq will have a new leader, and some US troops will remain in Kuwait through August.

Source 049 is not described in detail in this summary.

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Body:  Approved For Release 2004/08/25 :CIA-RDP96-007898003600330001-6
 SECFlET
 DT-5- I01~ -5L
 DEFENSE
 INTELLIGENCE
 AGENCY
 5UI1lIRAAY AEPUAT (U)
 PROJECT 9190
 14 Januar~,J 1991
 No~~
 SECRET
 LI~SDIS
 Approved For Release 2004/08/25 :CIA-RDP96-007898003600330001-6
 Approved For Release ~ CI~4~96-007898003600330001-6
 PROJECT 91002
 REPRODUCTION REQUIRES APPROVAL OF
 ORGINATOR OR HIGHER DOD .AUTHORITY.
 FURTHER DISEMINATION ONLY AS DIRECTED
 BY DT OR HIGHER DOD AUTHORITY.
 14 JANUARY 1991
 CLASSIFIED BY:  DIA/DT
 DECLASSIFY BY:  OADR
 1~OT RFL'EASABZE TG FOREIGR RATIOR'A~'
 Approved For Release 20a~~6~0789R003600330001-6
 A  roved For Release ~~ CIRP96-007898003600330001-6
 pp
 PROJECT 91002
 SUMMARY
 1.  (S/NF/LIMDIS)  TASK:   Describe key events/incidents
 significant to the Iraqi situation far the near term period
 (7-31 Jan 91>.
 2.  (U)  PRIOR REPORTING:   This is a general follow-up to
 tasking for project 90104 report on 30 Oct 1990 and on b Nov
 1990.  Project 91002 was initiated on 7 Jan 1991.
 3.  (U)  RESPONSES:
 a.  (U)  SOURCE 025:
 (1)  (U)  DATE OF INFORMATION:  7 Jan 91
 (2)  (S/NF/LIMDIS}  DATA SUMMARY:
 -  Peace talks will fail and will resume in
 the Middle East in the March time frame.
 (b)   War situation:
 -  War will break out in February and last
 2-3 'months:
 o  US casualties will occur (700-2000),
 mostly  in  Kuwait.
 o  Hussein will eventually withdraw from
 Kuwait.
 o  War will be fast and furious.
 -  By April, Iraq will have a new leader.
 -  Some US troops will be in Kuwait through
 August.
 b.  (U)  SOURCE 049: