KEY INTELLIGENCE TASK 91004

CIA-STARGATE

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This document from the CIA's Stargate program provides assessments on the political/military indicators and possible locations preceding an imminent Iraqi attack. The assessments from multiple sources are as follows:

Source A (DOI: 16 Jan 91):
- Preemptive Iraqi strikes are not expected in the next 1-2 weeks.
- Weather conditions, specifically rainstorms, could pose a problem in the southern area in 3-5 days (19-21 Jan).
- Some heavy equipment movement from east to west is anticipated in Kuwait.
- Within 1-3 days (17-19 Jan), Iraq is expected to launch missiles into Saudi Arabia, but front line troops will not advance.
- Future potential strikes may occur in a specific area (Area B).

Source B (DOI: 16 Jan 91):
- Preemptive action from Iraq is not expected until after February 1991.
- There is a possibility of a surprise attack from the Kuwait side in early February.
- This conflict could lead to a new leader in Iraq around April.

Source C (DOI: 15 Jan 91):
- There will be significant aircraft activity heading north towards the Turkey border.
- Large buried objects in the sand will be uncovered.
- Some form of communications or command and control with lower-ranking individuals will be shut down.
- High-level people will exhibit a sense of disbelief.
- Some areas will experience abandonment.
- SCUD missile launches will be used as a distractor, with the outskirts of Riyada being a target area.
- Aircraft carriers and hospital ships are possible targets via aircraft suicide runs and missiles.
- Activity is planned in the vicinity of Mecca.
- Hussein's attitude is ruthless, not concerned about world opinion.

Source D (DOI: 15 Jan 91):
- Iraq may initiate a preemptive attack into Saudi Arabia around the vicinity of 30 degrees 20 minutes North/43 degrees 15 minutes East.
- Considerable aircraft activity will precede the possible assault.
- A light beam or heat may be associated with the assault.

Source E (DOI: 16 Jan 91):
- Hussein is expected to not back out of Kuwait.
- There will be no political or military movement from Hussein in the near future.
- Saudi Arabia oil wells are targeted, with terrorist activity anticipated against Shell Dil Co.
- Attacks from Iraq or the US are not expected in the near future.

Overall Assessment from all sources (DOI: 16 Jan 91):
- Preemptive strikes in the next 1-2 weeks are generally

Text

Body:  Approved For Release 2000/08~~~1A-RDP96-007898002900240002-3
 KEY  INTELLIGENCE TASK  (91004)
 S/NF/LIMDIS)   What          are the political/military  indicators, and
 possible location of indicators, that would precede an imminent
 Iraqi attack, if any?
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)  Source A assessment:  (DOI:  16 Jan 91)
 a.  Preemptive Iraqi strikes are not anticipated in the near
 future (1-2 weeks).
 b.  Weather (rainstorms) will be a problem in the sout.~ern
 area in 3-5 days (19-21 Jan).
 c.    Some  heavy  equipment  movement  (east  to  west)  is
 anticipated in near term in Kuwait (area A on FIG 1).
 d.  within 1-3 days (i.e., 17-17 Jan 91), Iraq will launch
 missiles (into Saudi Arabia areas):
 -  Front line troops will not advance.
 e.  Future potential strikes may occur in area B, FIG 1.
 f.  Iraq amy have two "special" weapons:
 -   Some type of  "interference" device that
 causes  electronic/mechanical  equipment  to
 "freeze up" or (lose effectiveness).
 -  Some type of energetic/beam-type device may
 be located in the sand in area C, FIG 1.
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)  Source B assessment  (DOI:  16 Jan 91)
 a.  Iraqi preemptive action is not anticipated until after
 February 1991:
 -  A surprise attack may occur from the Kuwait
 side in early February.
 b.   This conflict will result in a new Iraq leader by the
 April time frame.
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)  Source C assessment  (DOI:  15 Jan 91)
 a.   There  will  be  considerable  aircraft  activity  (north,
 toward Turkey border):
 -  Same old slow (transport-like) aircraft are involved.
 b.  Large groups of objects, now buried in the sand, will be
 uncovered.
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 c.   Something like communications, or command and control,
 with lower ranking individuals will be shutdown (or turned off).
 d.  Sense of disbelief (by high level people).
 e.  Some sort of abandonment occurs (in many areas).
 f.  SCUD missile launches will be used as a distractor:
 Outskirts of Riyada is one target area.
 g.   Aircraft carriers and hospital ships are targets (via
 aircraft suicide runs, missiles).
 h.  Some type of "activity" is planner] in vicinity of Mecca.
 i.  Hussein's attitude is ruthless; not concerned about world
 opinion.               ,
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)  Source D assessment (DOI:  15 Jan 91)
 -   Iraq may  initiate preemptive  attack  into Saudi Arabia
 (vicinity of 30 degrees 20 minutes North/43 degrees 15 minutes
 East).   Time  frame  unclear,  though  some  type  of  activity
 (indicator) may occur night of 14 Jan 91:
 --    considerable  aircraft  activity  will
 precede.
 --   Some  type  of  "light  beam/heat"  may  be
 associated with the possible assault.
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)  Source E assessment (DOI:  16 Jan 91)
 a.  Hussein-will not back out Kuwait.
 b.  Hussein will not move politically or militarily in near
 future.
 c.  Saudi Arabia oil wells are targeted:
 -    Terrorist  activity  anticipated  against
 Shell Dil Co.
 d.  Attacks (Iraq or US) not anticipated (in near future).
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)  All sources (A-E) assessment (DOI:  16 Jan 91)
 a.   Sources generally indicate that near term (1-2 weeks)
 preemptive strikes will not occur.
 b.   Sources are mixed as to possible long -term preemptive
 strike areas; candidate areas include central south Kuwait border,
 or a central area. along the Iraq/Saudi Arabia border.
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 c.   Two  sources  anticipates  special  (surprise)  weapons;
 another anticipates near term SCUD strikes into Saudi Arabia as
 well as suicide strikes against allied ships.
 d.  One source does not anticipate Iraq backing out of Kuwait.
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