KEY INTELLIGENCE TASK (91008)

CIA-STARGATE

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According to the CIA's Stargate program, there is no significant terrorist activity expected from January 20th to January 31st, 1991. However, after January 31st, a large city, possibly London, may experience terrorist activity. There is also a possibility of terrorist activity spreading to the US, with initial targets potentially being nuclear power plants and nuclear storage/development areas.

Source B assessment from January 8th, 1991, indicates a large European city as a likely target in this time frame. Source C assessment from January 22nd, 1991, suggests New York City as a planned target, likely in or near a large ticket or award ceremony. Other possible targets include the Shell Oil Company headquarters and aerospace companies.

Cargo ships rigged with explosive devices are a concern in UK and US harbors. The Israel delegation to the UN, a large hotel in Paris, and school areas in Wiesbaden and Augsburg, Germany, are also targeted. Greek and Italian military areas and cities are targeted through common delivery trucks. The NY and DC areas are targeted, potentially via waterways, and the DC Congress area possibly via a large truck.

The general impression is that Iraq may have dirty nuclear devices and could use them in Kuwait or possibly Israel. Missiles/aircraft may be stored in Jordan within miles of Iraq border. Iraq may start oil well fires in Kuwait and offshore. Chemical weapons and biological explosives may be left behind in the event of retreat from Kuwait. Iraq has infiltrated Saudi Arabia and Egypt with spotters for aid in target location for terrorist strikes. Libya is said to be assisting Iraq with CW (chemical weapons) equipment and mine deployment.

According to Source E assessment from January 17th, 1991, Hussein has placed chemical and biological devices on various cargo or empty oil tankers in worldwide ports. Iraq also possesses "dirty" nuclear devices that they plan to move via ships and trucks to various locations. Libya is expected to join the conflict and play a role in attacking US ships in the Red Sea or Mediterranean Sea. Jordan or possibly Iran may also have an emerging role in supporting Iraqi activities. Terrorist activity will be coordinated worldwide, with water supplies, food sources, and oil fields or supply lines being the leading target areas. Iraq may consider attacking allied ships in the Gulf and Red Sea, potentially through coordinated air, ship, and missile attacks with assistance from Libya and Iran.

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Body:  Approved For Release 20031L CIA-RDP96-00789R002900260004-9
 KEY INTELLIGENCE TASK  (91008)
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)  Will there be any significant terrorist activity in
 the near future (20 Jan 91 >< 1 Feb 91).
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)  Source a Assessment   (DOI:   21 Jan 91):
 a,       No  significant terrorist  activity         is  expected
 through 31 Jan 91.
 b.    A  large  city  (probably  London)  may          experience
 terrorist activity after 31 Jan 91.
 C.   Terrorist activity will probably spread to the US,
 though use  of  chemical  devices   are  not         anticipated.
 Initial targets could involve nuclear power plants and
 possibly nuclear storage/development areas.
 S/NF/LIMDIS ).,?.: Source B : ?Assessmeftt   (DQI ; : 08:-Jan 91)
 A large EUirope?an. city i?s. ?a" likely 'target `in
 this time frame.
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)   Surc?e C Assessment (DO2' _: 22 ?J.an 91)
 a.  The New.York City.,area is being' planned for. terrorist
 .. ; ., +he  neAr  -'F?+"_,]re        Location -.is   neat:,  or,... in   a.
 _.L L
 ack
 e t ? or some      typ   o:f "award . ceremony .' ' A '' name`                  ke ..
 ;e
 v
 "THEODORE", ,. ess.ociated? _,with;            a..;. le.ftis PLO . grou ..: ;mss
 involved
 k..    Other' ? loxi
 include
 Shell Oil Company headquarters'. (Houston,
 TX).
 aerospace ;:companies ..probably in :New
 oPPing?;;'ma3 is tnt ougnput
 Some attacks may be made against nuclear
 power plants in an attempt to cause them to
 "melt down".
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 (S/NF/LIMDIS)   Source D Assessment (DOI:   21 Jan 91):
 a.  Cargo ships are rigged with H.E., gas-type explosives
 -(probably-in, or soon in, UK, US harbors).
 b.
 Israel delegation to UN is main personnel target.
 c.
 d.
 A large hotel in Paris is targeted.
 School  areas of Germany are targeted
 (Wiesbaden,
 Augsburg).
 e.   Greece and Italian military areas and city. location
 are targeted (via common delivery trucks).
 f.  NY and DC areas?are targeted (main access probably
 via waterways).
 .:.?. DC  (ongr:ss.  area,,: .. probably  via  large
 .truck).
 General impressions:
 Trap ha  several dirty nuclea'r..devices and...
 may' use.them in-Kuwait -or possibly Israel .aLea
 (via ships, large commercial planes).
 e:: miss les/aircraft `may be ` Stored :
 S
 om
 Jordan within      iles ` 'of 'Iraq bo.rger
 rracf..will --start oil well fires.  in :Kuwait
 and-off shore.)..in the near future
 CW./BWexplosives will be  -left behind" in
 event of retreat from Kuwait.
 - A considerable amount. of. Iraq "spotters"
 have infiltrated S. Arabia, Egypt for aid in.
 target location,,. terrorist strikes .
 Libya will a _sist Iraq:. vi:a :CW ., equipment:;. an
 mine deployment.
 (S/NF/LIMDIS)   Source E Assessment   (DOI:   17 Jan 91):
 a. Hussein has placed.CW/BW devices on -various cargo or
 empty  oil  tankers  that  are  (or  will  be)  in  various
 worldwide ports.
 b. Hussein does have a few "dirty" nuclear devices that
 he plans to move via ships, trucks to various worldwide
 locations.
 c.  Libya will soon join in the conflict .(probably via
 Pt1` ftfl El'SABLE'.TO iorflCN 'N' A;1ONMS
 LIMITED DIWW d(Pbr Release 20  /p    1 :CIA-RDP96-007898002900260004-9
 Approved For Release 2003/0
 terrorist support), and will also play a role in attack
 of US ships in the Red Sea or Mediterranean Sea area.
 d.  -Jordan,-or possibly Iran, amy.also have an emerging
 role in future support of-Iraqi activities..
 e.    Terrorist activity will be coordinated worldwide.
 Leading target areas are:
 -  Water supplies, food source.
 -  Oil fields or supply lines.
 f.   In general:
 Iraq may consider attacking allied ship-in
 the  Gulf  and  Red  Sea.   ...This  may  involve
 coordinated -ai.r.,  ship  and possibly  missile.
 attack' with .Libyan ' n " 1-rani-an .assi